Qick Recovery or Prolonged Bitcoin Winter? Analysts Opine
Crypto markets have been down-trending for more than a year now, and an extended period of low volatility could be about to commence, according to one analyst.
However, others have opined that there could be a quick turnaround once the macro situation improves.
On Dec. 18, crypto analyst “Cold Blooded Shiller” compared the current market to that from the last bear cycle in 2018/19. After the period of rapid declines, markets went into a lull state of sideways trading and very low volatility for around 18 months.
The analyst suggested that this could happen again with crypto winter extending into 2024 if history rhymes.
Seems pretty similar atm, volatility, sell off from this region to fresh lows, start the volatility slowdown for the next 12 months. pic.twitter.com/nzeBMVtjvC
— Cold Blooded Shiller (@ColdBloodShill) December 18, 2022
A Quick Recovery?
However, there are alternative views that predict a quicker recovery for crypto markets. DeFi analyst ‘Kamikaz_ETH’ said that comparing markets to those before the ‘DeFi Summer’ is meaningless.
“There will be no extended 1-2 year crypto winter – a couple months tops depending on how fast macro bottom,”
They added that every traditional finance firm is preparing to offer crypto services, and crypto has a lot of real use cases now, most of which are based on Ethereum.
“2020/2021 was not the third crypto cycle – it was the first crypto cycle based on actual functional use cases,” they added.
Use cases aside, a bigger factor influencing crypto markets is the macroeconomic situation. Retail investors are unlikely to pile back in until they have spare cash to do so. This is unlikely to happen until inflation is under control and energy, utility, and household bills come back down to sensible levels.
Most of next year is likely to be a continuation of the current range-bound market movements with no real breakouts. The final flush-out appears to have occurred, with markets dropping 73% from peak to trough, but that doesn’t necessarily mean there won’t be another panic selloff.
Crypto Market Outlook
Markets have been flat over the weekend with very little activity. Total capitalization was $840 billion during Monday morning’s Asian trading session – very close to the cycle bottom last month.
BTC had dipped to $16,663, while Ethereum was also in the red at $1,177 at the time of writing, according to CoinGecko.
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I’m a journalist who specializes in investigative reporting and writing. I have written for the New York Times and other publications.